Chinese President Xi Jinping has embarked on his first trip to Russia since the country invaded Ukraine last year, and is set to sit down for talks with President Vladimir Putin.
Our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg and China correspondent Stephen McDonell consider what each side hopes to gain from the talks, and what we know about the relationship between the two countries .
Putin sought help from a friend
Imagine you are Vladimir Putin.
You started a war without planning; you have your eyes on punishments; and now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for war crimes in your name.
In times like these you need a friend.
President Xi once called President Putin his “best friend”. The two have much in common: they are both authoritarian leaders, and both embrace the idea of a “multi-polar world” without US dominance.
In Moscow they are expected to sign an agreement on “deepening the comprehensive partnership” between their two countries.
The Chinese president’s state visit is a clear sign of support for Russia – and its president – at a time when the Kremlin is under intense international pressure.
And Russia’s relationship with China is crucial to enduring that.
“Putin is building his own bloc. He no longer trusts the West – and he will never again,” believes journalist Dmitry Muratov, a former winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.
“Therefore, Putin is looking for allies and trying to make Russia part of a common fortress with China, as well as India, some parts of Latin America and Africa. Putin is building his anti-Western world.”
In this “anti-Western world”, Moscow is very dependent on Beijing – now more than ever, as the war continues in Ukraine.
“The war has become the organizing principle of Russian national politics, foreign policy and economic policy. There is an obsession with destroying Ukraine,” concluded Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“For that you need weapons, money and an economic lifeline. China provides Russia, at least, components for weapons, and civilian technology that can be used for military purposes. This is certainly gives money.”
To counter Western sanctions, and to strengthen the Russian economy, Russia has increased trade with China, especially in the energy sector. It is expected that oil, gas and energy pipelines will be on the agenda of the Putin-Xi talks.
But, again, imagine you are Putin. A year ago you and Xi declared that your partnership has no “limits”. If that is indeed the case, can you expect China today to help you in Ukraine, by providing Russia with lethal aid and facilitating a military victory for Moscow? The US has admitted that China is considering doing so. Beijing denies this.
As they say in Russia, “there is no harm in wishing for something” – but this does not mean that it will happen. If there’s one thing the past year has shown it’s that the “no-limits partnership” has its limits. Up to this point Beijing has been apparently reluctant to provide direct military aid to Moscow, for fear of triggering secondary Western sanctions against Chinese companies. As for Beijing: sorry Russia… China first.
That very point was made bluntly recently on a Russian state TV talk show.
“Before President Xi’s visit to Moscow, some experts here were overexcited, even overjoyed,” said military expert Mikhail Khodarenok.
“But China has only one ally: China itself. China can only have one set of interests: pro-Chinese ones. China’s foreign policy is completely devoid of altruism.”
Xi’s signals to Putin can only go three ways
Officially Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia is to promote bilateral relations between the two neighbors and certainly these governments say they are getting closer.
There will be agreements to be signed, meals to be had, photo opportunities to be had.
All governments have such visits, so why all the attention to it?
Well, for one, it’s the leader of one of the world’s two major powers visiting an ally — who happens to be the man who unleashed a bloody invasion of another European country — in 2023.
Many analysts pondered what China might do if it looked like Russia was facing a clear, humiliating defeat on the battlefield.
The Chinese government says it is neutral. Will it just stand back and let that happen, or start pumping in weapons to give the Russian military the upper hand?
After Xi is in Moscow, he and his Russian counterpart may talk about other things, but all attention will be on the Ukraine crisis.
His signals to Vladimir Putin can only be three ways:
1. Time to consider stepping back with some face-saving compromises
2. Green light to continue or go further
3. There is no way from the Chinese leader
With option one, if it involves Beijing again being able to claim the mantle of global peacemaker following the Iran-Saudi deal, it would be a neat feather in Xi’s cap.
The main problem with that option is the extent to which it will also benefit China.
The worst option is number two, but there is a reading where Russia’s war in Ukraine plays into Beijing’s geopolitical strategy. The Kremlin has drawn the West, eaten up Nato’s resources and, if the war dragged on, further tested the appetite of the Western public for more conflict if the People’s Liberation Army had to move to take Taiwan by force.
The calculation from Beijing may be that, the longer the war goes on, the less people will want to join another.
The Chinese government’s claim to neutrality also does not match state-controlled news reporting here. The evening TV bulletins toe the Kremlin line and spend a large part of their coverage blaming the “West” for the “conflict”. It does not talk about a “war” and would never dream of talking about an “invasion” of Ukraine.
Publicly, China says that the sovereignty of all countries must be respected (ie Ukraine), but also the “legitimate security concerns” of other countries (ie Russia).
But it was not Kyiv that Xi Jinping visited. This is Moscow.
So, when Xi leaves Moscow in a few days, Putin will either worry about doubting China’s support or be encouraged to back one of the two most powerful men on the planet.
The smart money seems to be on the latter.