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A small group of Western allies are engaged in “advanced” and “tempered, last-minute” negotiations to finalize a declaration of security assurances for Ukraine ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania, according to four officials familiar with the talks.
For weeks, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany discussed the issue with Kyiv, and also reached out to other NATO allies, the EU and the G7. The idea is to create an “umbrella” for all countries willing to provide Ukraine with continuous military assistance, although the details vary from country to country.
The effort is part of broader negotiations with NATO and several groups of countries on how Western allies should show long-term support for Ukraine.
Kyiv wants to join NATO as soon as possible, giving it access to the alliance’s vaunted Article 5 clause – an attack on one is an attack on all. But many allies within the alliance largely agree that Ukraine can only join after the war, at the earliest.
So the biggest powers in the alliance are working to see what security commitments they can give to each other in Ukraine in the meantime. That view is not universal, however, with eastern NATO countries pushing for Ukraine to get an easier path to accession, even as fighting continues.
The intention of the Western powers is to reveal their umbrella framework around the annual NATO summit, according to officials in Berlin, Paris, London and Brussels, who all spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity. in discussions. The two-day event starts Tuesday in Vilnius.
“The discussion started; it is quite advanced, in fact it is very advanced, and we are very hopeful that it will be finished at the end of the summit,” a French official told reporters at a briefing.
A senior NATO diplomat agreed, telling reporters in a separate briefing that there was “messy last-minute negotiations” taking place so far “as it looks.”
Last minute details
US President Joe Biden is set to meet with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday in London, where their two staffs will meet to try and iron out last-minute details, according to a second NATO diplomat with knowledge of the plans. On the US side, Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl is tasked with getting the agreement to the finish line.
The initiative may ultimately amount to promises to continue most of the aid allies have already provided: weapons, equipment, training, financing and intelligence. But the intention is to offer a more permanent signal of unity for Ukraine, especially since Kyiv is unlikely to get the firm promise of NATO membership that it wants this week’s summit.
“This is a fundamental guarantee of Ukraine that we, for a long time to come, we will equip their armed forces, we will finance them, we will advise them, we will train them so that they have a deterrent force. against even what future aggression,” said the senior NATO diplomat.
Many details of this support are left for later, however. The diplomat said it is up to each interested country to determine bilaterally with Ukraine “what your commitment is. And it could be anything, from air defense to tanks to anything.
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an “appeal to all countries that want to support Ukraine,” saying that they must “make decisions for themselves that will enable them to continue to continue support for one, two, three, and, if necessary. may be, many years, because we do not know how long the military conflict will last.”
Separated from the declaration of security assurance that the Western powers have ended, NATO is also developing new ways to help the Ukrainian military in the coming years.
At the summit, NATO will agree on plans to help modernize Ukraine’s defenses, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Friday. The plan, he said, will include “a multi-year assistance program to ensure full interoperability between the armed forces of Ukraine and NATO.”
That multi-year effort will also focus on Ukraine’s military modernization programs, and like the “umbrella” initiative, will depend on individual countries contributing as they see fit.
NATO aspirations
NATO leaders will also create a new NATO-Ukraine forum, which will give both sides a space to work on “practical joint activities,” Stoltenberg added.
The broader conversation on security concerns is inevitably linked to the debate around NATO’s aspirations in Ukraine, which will be high on the agenda when leaders meet in Vilnius.
In a formal communiqué to be issued during the summit, “we will discuss Ukraine’s membership aspirations and that is something that NATO allies continue to work on,” US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters on Friday .
In particular, the leaders sought to update the alliance’s vague 2008 promise that Ukraine would “become” a NATO member at some point. But they don’t expect Kyiv to offer the “clear invitation” Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy is looking for.
Scholz conceded last week.
“In fact, we will also discuss the question of how to continue to deal with the view of countries that look at NATO and want to join it,” said Scholz. However, he added, “it is also clear that no one can be a member of a defense alliance during a war.”
Still, Stoltenberg struck an upbeat tone on Friday.
“I am confident that we have a clear message,” he said. “We must remember that the allies also agree on many important principles when it comes to Ukraine and membership.”
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.
