The 2024 contest has just begun and the dynamics of the race could change if DeSantis enters the race as an official candidate. But early measures of public support suggest Trump is building his political strength amid criminal investigations, including a possible indictment of the Manhattan district attorney.
The former president used increasingly ominous language to describe the situation, echoing his language before the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. He warned Friday of “potential death and destruction” if he is charged and previously urged “PROTESTA” ” because of his possible arrest.
On Saturday, Trump held his first mega-rally of his 2024 bid, in Waco, Texas, amid the 30th anniversary of a deadly federal attack there that fueled the growth of the anti- government militia. Trump aides say the timing and location are irrelevant, and rooted in a desire to appeal to evangelicals, who will have a revival this week at nearby Baylor University, and will feature a large and central location in a state that votes on “Super Tuesday,” an important date in the 2024 nominating contest.
DeSantis has moved to enter the race but is not expected to officially join for months. Some of his political aides as well as at least one executive appointee close to the governor, and others in his circles, are adjusting their thinking about the competition, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, who as others spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. While some allies once expected a “coronation,” as one person described the mindset of those close to the governor, more now emphasize that a DeSantis victory will require a long, 50 -state delegate fight.
DeSantis’ political group has not commented on the matter.
“There’s no denying that former president Trump has an organization ready to go and an upper floor with upward mobility,” said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based Republican operative who is not aligned with one candidate in 2024 and emphasized that many primary voters in the state remain open to other contenders. “It’s just a result of people getting to know President Trump while the other candidates have a lot of work to do.”
In four high-quality national surveys gauging the field since last winter, Trump has built his lead over DeSantis over the past few months. Trump leads DeSantis by 16 points in a Yahoo/YouGov poll this month (and in late February), up from a point or two in previous months. The Monmouth University poll went from a 13-point lead for DeSantis in December to a 14-point lead for Trump today. A March Quinnipiac poll found Trump with a 14-point lead, up from a six-point lead over DeSantis in February, and a February Economist/YouGov poll saw Trump improve from this was in november.
Early primary polls can often change, and the recent history of Republican primaries is littered with examples of early poll leaders who never make the ballot. However, the two opposing teams are now adapting to the shift in momentum, with Trump’s campaign showing confidence and DeSantis’ campaign-in-waiting looking for a close contest.
“What hurts DeSantis is that he’s gotten into a lane where he’s trying to say, ‘I’m going to be Trump but not Trump,’ and most of these voters are saying, ‘We want Trump,'” he said. John McLaughlin, a pollster for the Trump campaign whose latest findings track public surveys. “My only problem is that the election is 20 months away.”
Some DeSantis allies said the governor remains in a strong position and has plenty of time to catch up. One person who spoke to DeSantis’ team said they have always been clear about the challenges facing Trump. Another person close to the governor’s political orbit said DeSantis has “steel for a spine” and scoffed at the idea that DeSantis would “bow to stupid tactics.”
Some supporters expressed public confidence. “He’s got to announce, I think you’re going to see him get a bump,” said former Republican congressman Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania, an early Trump supporter in 2016 who is now behind DeSantis. “People in many states are just getting to know him, and the campaigns are long.”
Yet concern is growing among some on DeSantis’ team about the scale of Trump’s attacks, according to two people familiar with the discussions, with one saying Trump is “trying to kill him in crib.” The people spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private discussions.
DeSantis’ aides have yet to settle on an approach to the aspersions leveled at him by Trump. His wife and closest adviser, Casey DeSantis, objected to the response, according to people familiar with his views, with one saying, “He’s not a condescending person.”
The governor has recently distanced himself more sharply from Trump. He criticized his handling of the pandemic in an interview with conservative commentator Piers Morgan and he pointed out in a news conference the circumstances of the case in Manhattan, related to a silent payment to an artist in adult film. The attacks caused a severe backlash in the right-wing media and among MAGA influencers.
“DeSantis quickly learned that consolidating the anti-Trump vote in a GOP primary is like a multilane highway,” said Caroline Wren, a pro-Trump fundraiser. “Every position he takes going forward will be considered a break from Trump, or following Trump, and will end up alienating certain factions of the party.”
Trump himself has stepped up his criticism of DeSantis, from highlighting his opponent’s past support for Social Security and Medicare reforms to smearing his record as governor and lobbying for baseless personal attacks. . Republicans widely expect Trump to mount more vicious attacks because of his history of negative campaigning.
Some of DeSantis’ critics in Tallahassee have referred to him as “JebSantis,” according to lobbyists and former lawmakers familiar with the comments. The nickname is meant to identify DeSantis with Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor whose 2016 presidential bid had plenty of financial muscle and the air of inevitability until Trump brought him down. Bush has written and spoken effusively about DeSantis and attended his inauguration in January.
Although DeSantis emerged from his landslide reelection in November with significant appeal to many Republican voters who want to move away from Trump, it remains unclear how well he will appeal to their interests. In recent focus groups with Republican voters, Longwell said he’s noticed two signs he considers worrisome for the Florida governor.
Some participants, he said, began referring to DeSantis using phrases from Trump’s attacks, suggesting that efforts to define him had broken down. And many Republicans interested in DeSantis say if he fails they will turn to Trump rather than look to the rest of the field.
“He has tons of DeSantis-curious voters, but he’s trying to build this brand for himself as a fighter, and they need to see him fight,” Longwell said. “There’s no getting around Trump, just through.”
While DeSantis has not formally campaigned to promote his presidential ambitions or declare his candidacy, Never Back Down, a pro-DeSantis group, has mobilized supporters and said it is a likely outsider in spending. car when the governor launched his bid. Never Back Down recently received support from two Republican state senators in South Carolina.
While Trump’s resurgence has fueled speculation that DeSantis could flame out like other presidential front-runners in years past, others stress that the tables may be turning on Trump again.
“The only polls you need to care about are in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina in December and January of 2024,” said Dave Kochel, a veteran GOP strategist who worked on Mitt’s presidential campaigns. Romney and Jeb Bush.
Capturing the triumphant mood that has set in among Trump’s partisans, campaign adviser Boris Epshteyn took to the podcast of former White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon, the most MAGA of all places, on Wednesday to the faithful will say, “President Trump can’t win, he won this race. This race is over.”
Officially, Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, was more measured – but only slightly. “President Trump is going back to the White House, that’s the only outcome,” he said.
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
