As this storm moves toward landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Thursday, its primary impact is likely to be coastal flooding in low-lying areas as it pushes gulf waters inland. But the storm’s slow motion and abundant moisture should produce heavy rain in a region from New Orleans to South Florida. It will also bring wind gusts of up to 40 mph to southeastern Louisiana.
New Orleans is under a coastal flood warning until Thursday morning as the National Weather Service expects water levels to be 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide. the The Weather Service office in New Orleans predicted the greatest effects “on the east facing coasts from the mouth of [Mississippi River] through Hancock County, Ala.”
As continued easterly and northeasterly winds north of the low pressure zone gather water along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts (the ridge zones adjacent to southeast Louisiana), where the most water will accumulate, possibly reaching 3 feet or more. above average dry land.
The risk of flooding along the central Gulf Coast is heightened by recent sea level rise in the region. The Post reported Monday that seas have risen sharply here in the past decade. In New Orleans, sea level is now eight inches higher than it was in 2006.
In addition to coastal flooding, the rain — fed by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures over the gulf — could cause urban and freshwater flooding, especially in southeast Louisiana. There is also an elevated threat of heavy downpours in the Miami area as rain forms in pools of a stalled front.
The threat to southeast Florida, which could drop 3 to 6 inches of rain in a short period of time, should diminish by Wednesday night. Rain associated with the storm system should begin to concentrate along the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday night as it moves north into Thursday.
The highest rainfall amounts along the Gulf Coast and across the South are expected around southeastern Louisiana. About 1 to 3 inches is forecast in New Orleans, with more expected in the southeast. Widespread totals of 1 to 1.5 inches are forecast to spread as far north and east as central Georgia by late Thursday.
Overall, the wind gusts associated with this system are not predicted to be severe, but they could still reach dangerous levels – especially for mariners and small vessels around southeast Louisiana to Thursday.
Gusts as high as 40 mph were forecast in New Orleans, with gusts nearing 25 to 30 mph. Gusts as high as 50 mph are forecast mainly in coastal waters but could affect sparsely populated parts of St. Bernard Parish.
A gale warning is in effect for Gulf waters east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Waves of 6 to 11 feet are forecast, along with widespread gusts up to 46 mph (40 knots). The rest of the northern Gulf Coast should see gusts of about 25 to 35 mph in addition to rough seas and a current hazard.
For the most part, the rain from this system is welcome.
Precipitation in Southern Louisiana will be below normal through 2023. New Orleans will have a precipitation deficit of 7 inches. Gulfport, on the Mississippi coast, was nearly 9 inches below average. These areas and large parts of Florida are under moderate to severe drought levels, according to the US Drought Monitor.
In general, the Gulf Coast has been on the dry side recently, although areas farther inland have seen more than enough rain.
While this upcoming storm will not be a tropical storm, it is a good reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1. That is only six weeks away, and many years in recent history. there are named hurricanes in May before the official start of the season.
