JERUSALEM (AP) — News of a rapprochement between longtime regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran sent shock waves through the Middle East on Saturday and delivered a symbolic blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who made the threat posed by Tehran public. diplomacy priority and personal crusade.
The breakthrough – a culmination of more than a year of negotiations with Baghdad and more recent talks with China – also became a trap in Israel’s internal politics, reflecting the country’s divisions at one time. of national unrest.
The accord, which gives Iran and Saudi Arabia two months to reopen their respective embassies and re-establish ties after a seven-year rift, represents more broadly the one of the most remarkable changes in Middle East diplomacy in recent years. In countries like Yemen and Syria, which have long been caught between the Sunni kingdom and the Shiite powerhouse, the announcement sparked cautious optimism.
In Israel, this has caused disappointment – along with finger pointing.
One of Netanyahu’s biggest foreign policy victories is keeping the US-brokered normalization deal in 2020 with four Arab states, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. They are part of a broader push to isolate and oppose Iran in the region.
He portrayed himself as the only politician capable of protecting Israel from the rapidly accelerating nuclear program of Tehran and regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel and Iran have also waged a regional shadow war that has led to suspected Iranian drone strikes on ships linked to Israel carrying goods in the Persian Gulf, and other attacks.
A normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, the most powerful and wealthy Arab state, would fulfill Netanyahu’s cherished goal, reshaping the region and improving Israel’s standing in a historic way. Although backdoor relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have grown, the kingdom has said it will not officially recognize Israel before a resolution to the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Since returning to office last year, Netanyahu and his allies have suggested a kingdom deal could be imminent. In a speech to American Jewish leaders last month, Netanyahu described a peace agreement as “a goal that we are working towards in parallel with the goal of stopping Iran.”
But experts say the Saudi-Iran deal announced on Friday has thrown cold water on those ambitions. Saudi Arabia’s decision to engage its regional rival has left Israel alone as it has led the charge for diplomatic isolation of Iran and threats of a unilateral military strike against its nuclear facilities. in Iran. The UAE also resumed formal relations with Iran last year.
“This is a blow to the idea and efforts of Israel in recent years to try to form an anti-Iran bloc in the region,” said Yoel Guzansky, a Persian Gulf expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank. “If you see the Middle East as a zero-sum game, which Israel and Iran are doing, a diplomatic victory for Iran is bad news for Israel.”
Even Danny Danon, a Netanyahu ally and former Israeli ambassador to the UN who recently predicted a peace deal with Saudi Arabia in 2023, seems confused.
“It does not support our efforts,” he said, when asked if the agreement would harm the chances for recognition of the kingdom of Israel.
In Yemen, where the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is playing out with the most damaging consequences, the two warring parties are cautious, but optimistic.
A Saudi-led military coalition intervened in the conflict in Yemen in 2015, months after Iran-backed Houthi militias seized the capital Sanaa in 2014, forcing the internationally recognized Saudi government into exile. Arabia.
The Houthi rebels welcomed the agreement as a modest but positive step.
“The region needs the return of normal relations between its countries, where the Islamic society can regain the security lost from foreign interventions,” said Houthi spokesman and chief negotiator Mohamed Abdulsalam.
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government expressed some optimism — and caveats.
“The position of the Yemeni government depends on actions and practices not words and claims,” it said, adding that it will continue to be cautious “until a real change in (Iranian) can be observed.” behavior.”
Analysts do not expect an immediate settlement of the conflict, but said direct talks and better relations could create momentum for a separate agreement that could offer the two countries a exit from a terrible war.
“The ball is now in the court of the Yemeni domestic warring parties to prioritize Yemen’s national interest in reaching a peace agreement and be encouraged by this first positive step,” said Afrah Nasser, a non-resident fellow at Washington-based Arab Center.
Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst at the International Crisis Group, said she believed the deal was tied to a de-escalation in Yemen.
“It is difficult to imagine a Saudi-Iranian agreement to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies within two months’ time without assurances from Iran that will be more seriously supported the efforts to resolve the conflict in Yemen,” he said.
War-torn Syria has similarly welcomed the agreement as a step towards easing tensions that have fueled the country’s conflict. Iran has been the main backer of President Bashar Assad’s government in Syria, while Saudi Arabia has backed opposition fighters trying to oust him from power.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry called it an “important step that will lead to the strengthening of security and stability in the region.”
In Israel, bitterly divided and gripped by mass protests over the far-right Netanyahu government’s plans to overhaul the judiciary, politicians have seized on the reconciliation between the kingdom and Israel’s arch-enemy as an opportunity to criticize Netanyahu, accusing him of focusing on his personal agenda. the cost of Israel’s international relations.
Yair Lapid, Israel’s former prime minister and opposition leader, criticized the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran as “a complete and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy.”
“This is what happens when you deal with legal nonsense all day instead of doing the work on Iran and strengthening relations with the US,” he wrote on Twitter. Even Yuli Edelstein from Netanyahu’s Likud party blamed Israel for “power struggles and head-butting” for distracting the country from its more serious threats.
Another opposition lawmaker, Gideon Saar, scoffed at Netanyahu’s goal of formal relations with the kingdom. “Netanyahu promised peace in Saudi Arabia,” he wrote on social media. “Finally (Saudi Arabia) did it … with Iran.”
Netanyahu, on an official visit to Italy, declined a request for comment and did not release a statement on the matter. But Israeli media quotes an anonymous senior delegation official seeking to blame the previous government that ruled for a year and a half before Netanyahu returned to office. “This happened because of the impression that Israel and the US are weak,” the senior official said, according to the daily Haaretz, citing Netanyahu as the official.
Despite Netanyahu’s tarnished reputation, experts doubt that a detente would harm Israel. Saudi Arabia and Iran will remain regional rivals, even if they open embassies in each other’s capitals, Guzansky said. And like the UAE, Saudi Arabia can deepen ties with Israel despite maintaining a transactional relationship with Iran.
“The low-key arrangement that the Saudis have with Israel will continue,” said Umar Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham, noting that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank remains a barrier to Saudi recognition rather than differences. over Iran. “The Saudi leadership is engaged in more than one way to ensure national security.”
_____
Magdy reports from Cairo. Associated Press writers Bassem Mroue in Beirut and Albert Aji in Damascus, Syria, contributed to this report.
