Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a cruel task. But a military that tries to do this usually has one big advantage: surprise. The occupying force did not know when or where the attackers would attack.
In 1944, the US and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that the invasion of France would take place on a different side of the Atlantic coast than before. Now, Ukraine is equally hoping to surprise Russia by launching a counter-offensive in the spring or summer. The Russians knew a major attack was coming but not the form it would take.
The outcome of that counter-offensive could shape the outcome of the war. A successful campaign in Ukraine, recapturing territory now controlled by Russia, could cause President Vladimir Putin to fear total defeat and look for a face-saving peace agreement. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder if the war is winnable and could push Ukraine toward an uneasy truce.
In today’s newsletter, I look at the upcoming phase of the war, with the help of colleagues who cover it. The counteroffensive could start at any point in the next few weeks.
The land bridge
The so-called land bridge being built by Russia in southeastern Ukraine is likely the target:
The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which was invaded and occupied by Russian forces almost a decade ago. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also controlled territory connecting Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. “The Ukrainians want to destroy the land bridge,” Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington, told me.
The territory controlled by Russia gives it many strategic advantages. One, Ukraine is cut off from almost half of its coastline. Two, the territory includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia which is a major producer of electricity.
Three, and perhaps most importantly, Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russian military supplies to Crimea and cities in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, Kyiv bureau chief of The Times. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)
Punch through
Experts compared the recent months of the war to World War I, with both sides digging trenches and making no progress. Russia has lost tens of thousands of troops this year just to capture Bakhmut, a marginal town in the Donbas.
Ukraine hopes its counter-offensive will end this stalemate. Western allies have supplied Ukraine’s military with billions of dollars in equipment and trained its troops in camps in Germany in recent months. The troops learned a technique known as combined-arms warfare, where different parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks punched through enemy lines by rolling into trenches, for example, and infantry then spread out to hold the area.
“The counteroffensive will probably start in several areas, probably in the south and east,” Julian said. “Some of these will be deceptions. Others will be part of the main efforts.”
Ukraine has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but the Ukrainian military has so far proven more effective – with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weapons. – than Russia. The counter-offensive is effectively a bet that Ukraine will use those advantages not only to repel Russia but to regain large territories.
As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a Ukrainian correspondent, said, “If Ukraine cuts the land bridge, Russian troops will be more vulnerable and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to attack from a distance east and south, towards the Crimea. .”
Most experts do not believe that Ukraine will retake Crimea anytime soon – or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. However, Ukraine did not need that outcome for the counter-offensive to succeed. Any major development would cause Putin and his aides to worry that a prolonged war would bring more losses and ultimately put Crimea at risk. “The Russian people care about Crimea,” says my colleague Helene Cooper. Before the Soviet era, the region was part of Russia for decades.
In a favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace agreement in which Russia is expelled from everywhere but Crimea and parts of the Donbas region would be plausible. On the other hand, a failed counter-offensive and an unbroken land bridge will give Putin a huge psychological victory and a foundation from which to launch future attacks.
One important thing is that Ukraine now has enough weapons only for a major push. If the Ukrainians do not advance in the fall, if the colder and wetter weather makes the fight more difficult, the Russian land bridge may begin to be impregnable.
As Helene points out, however, Ukraine has consistently exceeded expectations in this war. Even the fall of Bakhmut, while a disappointment, took more months than analysts expected. In the coming months, the Ukrainian military will try to do its most difficult task since repelling the first Russian invasion.
For more
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The summer movie season starts next week. Among the movies that thrilled The Times critics:
Terrible: “The Boogeyman,” inspired by Stephen King’s story, is about a young woman who fights a supernatural entity that invades the house. (June 2)
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