Bangkok, Thailand – Thailand’s reformist opposition has won the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote in the country’s elections in a stunning repudiation of nearly a decade of military and military-backed rule.
With almost all the votes counted, the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party were projected on Monday to win 286 seats out of 500 up for grabs.
But uncertainty remains over whether they will be able to form the next government because of crooked rules that allow 250 members of a military-appointed Senate to vote for the prime minister.
That means MFP and Pheu Thai will need the support of smaller parties to form a new administration.
The biggest winner of the night was the MFP, a youth-led party contesting the general election for the first time on a bold platform of reducing the entrenched power of Thailand’s royalist-military elite.
With 99 percent of preliminary results published on the election commission’s website, the MFP looks set to win the largest share of the lower house with a total of 147 seats. This includes 112 out of 400 directly elected seats and 35 out of 100 seats allocated to parties on a proportional basis.
Analysts described the result for the MFP as “remarkable” because pre-election surveys predicted that it would be Pheu Thai, which is linked to the billionaire Shinawatra family and which has won every election since 2001, which would get the lion’s share. .
The result shows that Pheu Thai has a total of 138 seats – 112 were directly elected and 27 from the party-list.
The royalist-military situation was not good.
The United Thai Nation Party of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who first seized power in a coup in 2014, is in fifth with 36 seats. His former party, Palang Pracharath is in fourth with about 40 seats.
Bhumjaitai, who led the campaign to legalize marijuana in Thailand, came in third. Part of the current ruling coalition, the party is expected to win about 70 seats.
“The result is an impressive victory for the Move Forward Party,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science professor at Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand.
“This marks a big change for Thailand because it shows that most people in the country want to change,” he told Al Jazeera. “We really see the power of the voters, who are fighting so hard this season for change.”
‘Sensational’
Indeed, on Sunday’s voting day, Thais – young and old – turned out in droves to vote, with many expressing their desire for change. In the capital Bangkok, voters braved the sweltering heat to exercise their right to vote, and by midday, officials at many polling stations said more than half of those eligible had exercised their right to vote. voting.
That includes 60-year-old Mallika Sriboonreung, who told Al Jazeera she felt “excited” to vote this year. Everyone in his family and most of his neighbors have already voted, he said. “I came to vote because I hope there is a better person to run the country,” he added.
Across the country, voting went smoothly with long and orderly queues observed at the start of the day in the northern city of Chiang Mai, the eastern resort city of Pattaya and the western tourist island of Phuket.
In all of these, the MFP swept the polls.
In Bangkok, it is poised to win all but one of the capital’s 33 constituencies.
In Chiang Mai province, the second most populous region and long considered a Pheu-Thai stronghold, it looks set to take seven out of 10 seats. In Pattaya, it is likely to get seven out of 10 seats up for grabs. And in Phuket, it won all three seats up for election.
As the results began rolling in Sunday night, the mood at MFP’s campaign headquarters was electric. “Before the election, I was hoping we would get about 100 seats,” said Phisit Krairot, a 33-year-old engineer. “But the real-time updates I saw today exceeded my expectations.”
Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat came to congratulate and thank supporters for a “sensational result”. “Now it is clear that Move Forward has gained the great confidence of the people and the country,” he wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Monday morning.
MFP candidates and supporters rejoice.
“I was surprised that the MFP was the leading party to form the government,” said a jubilant Piyarat “Toto” Chongthep, who won the election in Bangkok’s Bang-Na district.
The 28-year-old activist has been at the forefront of youth-led mass demonstrations that in 2020 broke long-standing taboos by calling out King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s restrictions on power. He was also one of the many protest leaders who ran for parliament under the MFP banner.
“For the reception, it was more than we could have imagined,” Piyarat told Al Jazeera. “I can’t really explain how it feels right now.”
Across town at the Pheu Thai headquarters, leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra congratulated the MFP and said the party with the most votes should lead the next government.
“We are ready to talk to Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official result,” he said on Sunday. “I’m happy for them,” he added. “We can work together.”
A glum-looking Prayuth meanwhile had little to say.
The incumbent prime minister reportedly left his campaign headquarters after telling the media that he respects democracy and the election.
The Election Commission now has 60 days to certify the election results.
‘Times of uncertainty’
Despite MFP’s strong showing, analysts say it faces an uphill battle for the Government House in Bangkok. That’s because any winning candidate would need 376 votes in both houses to become prime minister.
“At this point, whether the Senate is willing to honor the Move Forward order is still unclear,” wrote Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a political analyst, in the Thai Enquirer newspaper.
The sticking points for the military-appointed chamber are the MFP’s radical reforms of the monarchy and the military, including amending Thailand’s strict lese-majeste laws. The vaguely worded Article 112 carries a penalty of 15 years in prison and rights groups say it is being used to punish political activism.
In the last election in 2019, the Senate voted unanimously for Prayuth despite his party winning fewer seats than Pheu Thai. The prime minister later managed to put together a coalition of 19 different parties that kept him in office for four years.
Without the support of the Senate, the MFP needs the support of Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, such as Bhumjaitai, led by incumbent health minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
All of this means that it will be weeks before Thai voters find out who will lead their new government.
“Despite Move Forward’s victory in the polls, Thailand is likely in for a long period of uncertainty,” Lohatepanont wrote.
Additional reporting by Phakarat Jirenuwat in Bangkok, Vijitra Duangree in Pattaya and Kate Mayberry in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
