CNN
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For a remarkable day and a half, Russia faced the truth threat of an armed uprising, with President Vladimir Putin vowing to punish Wagner fighters marching towards Moscow and occupying cities along the way – before a surprise deal with Belarus appears prevented the crisis as fast as it emerged.
But many remain uncertain, with experts warning that the extraordinary uprising is unlikely to disappear quickly without consequences down the line.
Putin must now navigate after the most serious challenge his authority since he came to power in 2000, after a series of confusing events that were closely – and nervously – watched by the world and cheered by Ukraine.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the outspoken boss of Wagner, was sent to Belarus, apparently unharmed, but he may have painted a target on his own back. as before.
Here’s what we know.
Prigozhin, the bombastic head of the Wagner group, agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus on Saturday, in a deal apparently brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The deal included Prigozhin pulling back his troops from their march toward the capital, a Kremlin spokesman said Saturday.
Criminal charges against him will be dropped, the spokesman said. Wagner fighters will not face legal action for their part in the insurrection, and will instead sign contracts with Russia’s Ministry of Defense – a move Prigozhin previously dismissed as an attempt to bring his paramilitary line forces.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Wagner fighters left the military headquarters they briefly occupied in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.
Wagner’s troops previously claimed to have seized the main military facilities in two Russian cities; on Saturday, videos authenticated and geolocated by CNN showed Prigozhin and his forces withdrawing from one of the cities, Rostov-on-Don.
It is unclear where Prigozhin is now. The Kremlin does not know his whereabouts, the spokesman said Saturday.
The crisis in Russia erupted Friday when Prigozhin accused the Russian military of attacking Wagner’s camp and killing his men – and vowed to retaliate with force.
Prigozhin then led his troops to Rostov-on-Don and claimed control of key military facilities in the Voronezh region, where there was open fighting between Wagner’s units and Russian forces.
Prigozhin claimed that it was not a coup but a “march of justice.” But Moscow did little, with a senior security official calling Prigozhin’s actions a “staged coup d’état,” according to Russian state media.
Pavel Bednyakov/Sputnik via AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the country after an insurrection led by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 24.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied the attack by Wagner’s troops, and Russia’s internal security force opened a criminal case against Prigozhin.
Then came an extraordinary national speech from Putin.
In a speech broadcast across Russia on Saturday morning local time, a visibly angry Putin vowed to punish those “on the path of treason.”
Wagner’s “betrayal” was a “stab in the back of our country and our people,” he said, likening the group’s actions to the 1917 Russian Revolution that overthrew Tsar Nicholas II in the midst of WWI.
Things are tense on the ground, with civilians in Voronezh told to stay at home. Meanwhile, Moscow has increased security measures across the capital, declaring Monday a non-working day. Photos show Russian forces wearing body armor and holding automatic weapons near a highway outside Moscow.
All signs point to an impending armed confrontation in the capital as rumors and uncertainty swirl.
Then almost as quickly as it started, the short-lived mutiny over the failed Belarus deal seemed to put out the fire – at least for now.
Much remains unclear, such as what will happen to Prigozhin’s role within Wagner and the war in Ukraine, and whether all his fighters will be contracted by the Russian military.
A Kremlin spokesman said on Saturday that he “could not answer” what position Prigozhin would take in Belarus. Prigozhin himself gave few details about his agreement to halt the advance on Moscow.
The Wagner group is “an independent fighting company” with different conditions than the Russian military, said retired US Army Maj. Mike Lyons on Saturday. For example, Wagner warriors were better fed than the military – meaning that a full assimilation would be difficult.
“Maybe some will separate,” he added. “Those people are loyal to the person, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we still have many unanswered questions today.”
03:58 – Source: CNN
Chaos in Russia: A return to previous centuries?
The danger is not over for the Wagner boss, however, experts say.
“Putin will not forgive traitors. Even if Putin says, ‘Prigozhin, you go to Belarus,’ he’s still a traitor and I don’t think Putin will ever forgive that,” said Jill Dougherty, a former CNN bureau chief and a longtime affairs expert. in Russia.
It is possible that we will see Prigozhin “killed in Belarus,” he added – but this is a difficult problem for Moscow because while Prigozhin “has some kind of support, he is a threat, wherever he is.”
Putin now faces real problems as well.
Several experts told CNN that while the Russian president survived the stand-off, he now looks vulnerable – not only to the world and his enemies, but to his own people and military. That could be dangerous if there are skeptics or opponents inside Moscow who see an opportunity to undermine Putin’s position.
“If I were Putin, I would be worried about the people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagners as they left,” Dougherty said.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in the back seat of a car leaving Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.
A video, geolocated and verified by CNN, shows people cheering as Prigozhin’s car leaves Rostov-on-Don. The car stopped when a man approached and shook Prigozhin’s hand.
“Why are ordinary Russians in the streets cheering for people who just tried to stage a coup?” Dougherty said. “I mean maybe support them or like them. Whatever it is, it’s bad news for Putin.
01:46 – Source: CNN
The video shows Prigozhin leaving the Russian military headquarters
Prigozhin has known Putin since the 1990s, and was nicknamed “Putin’s chef” after winning lucrative Kremlin catering contracts. But Russian-backed separatist movements in Ukraine in 2014 laid the groundwork for Prigozhin’s transformation into a warlord.
Prigozhin established Wagner as a shadowy mercenary outfit fighting in eastern Ukraine and, increasingly, for Russian-backed causes around the world.
Wagner was inspired during the war in Ukraine, with fighters who appeared to be winning with visible progress where regular Russian troops had failed. However, its brutal tactics are believed to have caused many casualties.
As the war continued, Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership clashed publicly, with the Wagner chief accusing the military of not supplying his forces with ammunition and bemoaning the lack of combat successes. in regular military units.
He has repeatedly criticized their handling of the conflict, casting himself as ruthless and competent in comparison.
Prigozhin has always been careful to direct his blame at the Russian military leadership, not Putin, and defended the rationale for the war in Ukraine.
That is, until Friday when the insurrection began.
In a rare statement, Prigozhin said that Moscow invaded Ukraine under false pretenses created by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and that Russia was actually losing ground on the battlefield.
Steve Hall, former CIA chief of Russian operations, said that even seasoned Russia watchers were surprised by recent events.
“Everyone is scratching their heads,” he told CNN. “The only feeling I can get from a day like today, you have two guys who find themselves in irreversible situations and have to find their way out.”
Hall said that Prigozhin must have felt that he had bitten off more than he could chew as his column of troops marched towards Moscow. But at the same time, Putin faced the real prospect of having to defeat about 25,000 Wagner mercenaries.
Sending Prigozhin to Belarus was a face-saving move for both sides.
But Hall said Putin came out worse and weaker.
“Putin should have seen this literally months ago. We’ll see how it ends. I don’t think the story is over yet,” Hall said.