Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow’s own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials have killed thousands of his soldiers.
In a statement issued on Friday evening, the FSB security agency said it had “legally and reasonably initiated criminal proceedings” against the warlord of the Wagner Group “for the organization of armed insurrection.” “
The feud between Prigozhin and the Russian defense ministry has been building for months but now seems to be boiling over.
According to Russian state media, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin was aware of the rapidly developing situation and that “all necessary measures are being taken.”
“Prigozhin’s statements and actions are essentially calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and a ‘stab in the back’ for Russian soldiers,” the officials added.
The move came after Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of hiding “huge” battlefield failures from Putin, claiming 2,000 Wagner men had been killed in the strikes. ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In response to Prigozhin’s allegations, Moscow issued a strong denial and a procession of generals lined up to urge Wagner’s fighters to desist.
In a video appeal, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, first deputy chief of the general staff of the armed forces, said Prigozhin did not have the authority to issue orders. “This is a coup d’état,” he insisted, “you’re going home!”
Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin – known as “General Armageddon” – urged Wagner to hold its positions and not to turn its back on its own allies. “Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment,” he demanded.
Roll the dice
On Friday, the founder of the Wagner Group questioned Moscow’s justification for launching its invasion of Ukraine, saying that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not attack Russia with NATO,” and that “the war is necessary for a bunch of scumbags who will win and show how strong they are in the army.”
In a bombastic video statement he called Russia’s military leadership “evil” and vowed to march for “justice,” threatening anyone who stands in his way.
Speaking to POLITICO, Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and ex-NATO planner, said it was “too early to tell” if a coup had begun. “Moscow is clearly worried and has activated a defense plan – Prigozhin is trying to push something focused on Shoigu, but it could be many things.”
According to Ian Garner, an expert on Russia and author of a new book about the fallout from the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin rolled the dice, and now the state will eliminate him for good,” he said.
“I suspect that Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does – money, freedom, honor – without him. Why would Wagner’s warriors side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death? Garner said.
The unrest on Friday night was also like a death knell for the Wagner Group, which is active not only in Ukraine but also in Africa, according to an analyst.
“Whatever it is, it will definitely break Wagner,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the R-Politik consultancy firm, on her Telegram channel.
“This is the end of Prigozhin and the end of Wagner. An important moment: many within the elite will hold it against Putin that things have come and that the president did not react immediately. That is why this whole story is also a blow to Putin.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin published a pre-recorded video of President Putin in honor of Youth Day.
