(CNN) The highly classified leaked Pentagon documents posted on social media offer a pessimistic view of the US about the state of the war in Ukraine, highlighting the weaknesses of Ukraine’s weapons and air defense and predicted a stalemate in the coming months.
The documents, which appear to date from February and March, detail many of Ukraine’s perceived military shortcomings as Kyiv prepares for a spring counter-offensive against Russia.
Some of the classified documents warn that Ukraine’s medium-range air defenses to protect front-line troops will be “completely reduced by May 23,” suggesting that Russia will soon gain aerial superiority. and Ukraine may lose the ability to mobilize ground forces in a counter-offensive.
The documents also highlight lingering problems with Russia’s own military offensive, predicting that the result will be a stalemate between the two sides for the foreseeable future.
“Russia’s campaign of destruction in the Donbas region is likely to be headed for a stalemate, preventing Moscow’s goal of capturing the entire region by 2023,” says one of the classified documents.
Officials familiar with the situation told CNN that the documents appear to be part of a daily intelligence briefing deck prepared for senior Pentagon leaders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.
The leaking of the documents, many of which are classified as top secret, represents a major national security breach, and the Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation into who may have leaked them as the Pentagon -investigate how the leak affects US national security. In addition to examining the war in Ukraine, the documents include intelligence gathered by allies and enemies.
Retired Lt. gen. Mark Hertling, a CNN national security and military analyst, said the challenges facing Ukraine in its planned counteroffensive have been clear for weeks, including the need to integrate new equipment and new troops and ensure that an adequate supply chain is in place. He doesn’t think that leaking the document will change Kyiv’s plans.
“I don’t see anything in the documents that I’ve seen that would cause me as a commander to change my plans,” Hertling said. “It gave some information to the Russians about unit locations and ammo and equipment capabilities, but I dare say the Russians already know everything.”
The public warned US officials that the war could continue
In many ways, the assessment of the war in Ukraine is similar to what US officials have said publicly, as top officials in the Biden administration say the conflict is likely to drag on for months, if not longer.
But a detailed and unflinching assessment of the war is clearly outlined in the briefing slides about the challenges Ukraine faces despite its successes more than a year into the war.
An official from a country that is part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing agreement with the US told CNN earlier that it was alarming to see leaked information on the war in Ukraine that crippled the country on the battlefield.
“Profits for Ukraine are hard to come by, but it doesn’t help that private US assessments that point to a likely one-year stalemate have been revealed publicly,” the official said.
Publicly, US and Ukrainian officials downplayed the importance of the classified documents.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has assured Ukraine of the United States’ “ironclad” support for the country, following the leak of the Pentagon document, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
During a call on Tuesday Blinken “reaffirmed the strong support of the US and firmly rejected any attempt to doubt Ukraine’s capacity to win on the battlefield,” Kuleba wrote on Tuesday in Twitter.
“The US remains a reliable partner in Ukraine, focused on advancing our victory and securing a just peace,” Kuleba said.
At a press conference Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the department would “turn every stone over until we find the source” of the leaked intelligence documents.
CNN reviewed 53 leaked documents, all of which appear to have been produced between mid-February and early March.
At least one of the documents appears to have been altered, CNN previously reported, listing Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures and more than half the Russian death toll before being circulated on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
However, US officials have acknowledged that most of the documents appear to be genuine. Ukraine has already changed some of its military plans because of the leak, a source close to Zelensky told CNN.
“These documents are not static. They are a picture of a certain time. The United States and Ukraine have the ability to change what they are doing and how they approach this issue, and certainly there is a lot of time for Ukraine did it,” House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday.
More documents have also surfaced. The Washington Post reported Monday that another leaked document contained a dark assessment from February that troop, ammunition and equipment challenges could cause Ukraine to fall short of its goals. in the planned spring counter-offensive.
A document from February said the US assessed Ukraine could field 12 combat brigades for the spring counteroffensive, including three trained in Ukraine and nine trained and equipped by the US. Six of the brigades will be ready by the end of March and the remaining six by the end of April, according to the document.
The leaked documents include a detailed map of battle positions, statistics on the number of troops killed and wounded and estimates of tanks, fighter jets and other weapons located and destroyed.
A slide gives a timeline of when the ground in Ukraine will be frozen, when it will be muddy and when it will move favorably.
There have been assessments of Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut, where some of the fiercest fighting between the two sides has taken place this year. In a February update, the intelligence assessment included details of villages where the Ukrainian military had withdrawn and which positions it still controlled.
Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt contributed to this report.
