And so things get complicated. The Freedom Caucus is looking to the fallout when federal spending bills come up again and they can Granted flex their muscles. They will try to cut spending more than McCarthy and Biden have already agreed to — a move unlikely to win support from Democrats or the Senate. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to push military spending higher than it is now, which means both chambers are increasingly distrustful. That could ultimately result in a government shutdown, as my colleague Grace Segers reported on Wednesday.
As the prospectsAs David Dayen wrote earlier this week, that may ultimately be good for Democrats. “Government shutdowns historically backfire on Republicans, who eventually crawl back to the table without getting much in return,” Dayen wrote. “And the reason that defense spending will be reduced is especially a strong incentive to continue the need to fulfill the promises of the debt ceiling agreement.” That’s right to me: The House is stacked in favor of Democrats—but a lot will happen between now and October.
By now, however, it was clear that McCarthy had lost control of his caucus, to the extent that he had it. This is a surprising change. The deal he made with Biden should have casts his status as Speaker of the House. It was one of many—myself very much included—doubts that he could. But he did, rallying his caucus, barely, to pass a symbolic (and draconian) budget that forced administration negotiations. Now, however, his speakership hangs by a thread and the most extreme members of the House remind him that they hold his fate in their hands. That would be fodder for a lot of schadenfreude—if, of course, it didn’t lead to disastrous closure.
