Sometimes you need some time before the upsets come in the NCAA tournament. Sometimes, the action doesn’t even start on the first Thursday.
Not this year.
We were almost done with lunch when a late 4-seed Virginia turnover turned into an impossible, game-winning 3-pointer by JP Pegues to help 13-seed Furman advance. And it wasn’t the most memorable moment.
Before dinner, 2-seed Arizona blew a 10-point lead in a loss to 15-seed Princeton. Kentucky sends its regards.
But now we have some questions. Because the South region of the 2023 men’s March Madness bracket, and Alabama’s control of it, has changed.
ESPN’s expert panel of Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Myron Medcalf analyze what happened and what the South region looks like with two major upsets in the books.
Find live coverage of the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament here.
1. What made Arizona lose to Princeton? What about Virginia in the game against Furman?
Myron Medcalf: I hate to sound like a high school coach, but where was the effort in the last 10 minutes of the game? Arizona plays with pride. And it’s always dangerous. They led by double digits at the 11-minute mark, but when Tosan Evbuomwan and Co. rallied, the Wildcats seemed surprised and never responded properly. And, give credit to Tigers coach Mitch Henderson. It was Arizona’s third loss in a game with 67 or fewer possessions. They slowed down the game, and it worked.
Furman was determined until the last minute. It began with this group’s response to playing without top scorer Mike Bothwell, who fouled out in the second half. Jalen Slawson has been a real nightmare for Virginia as a 6-foot-7 ball handler. Then, late in the game, they played over the top of Virginia’s defense, opening up the floor. What followed: Furman was in a position to make a late play to win the game.
Jeff Borzello: Arizona’s guards are as bad as ever. The Wildcats got their typical production from their bigs, with Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo combining for 35 points and 17 boards — but Kerr Kriisa, Courtney Ramey, Pelle Larsson and Cedric Henderson Jr. totaled only 15 points. And for one of the best teams in the country at sharing the ball, the Wildcats had just 10 assists to 13 turnovers.
Virginia jumped out to an early lead, but its deliberately slow tempo wasn’t conducive to burying opponents under a barrage of points. Furman got a few baskets before the Hoos had a chance to set up their defense, giving the Paladins a boost and getting them back into the game. And, as has been the case most of the season, Virginia has really struggled to shoot the ball. The Cavaliers haven’t made 40% of their 3s in a game since January, and were just 2-for-12 from behind the arc on Thursday.
John Gasaway: The Wildcats were a woeful 3-of-16 on their 3s, and Kriisa was a personal 1-of-7. Teams don’t have shooting nights all the time, of course, but the fact that the No. 2 seed in the Ivy League tournament managed to hold off an NCAA No. 2 seed from getting second chances is even more surprising. Give full credit to Tosan Evbuomwan and Caden Pierce. They did a very good job on the defensive glass. Arizona pulled less than one of five of its misses.
As for Virginia, it ran into similar deaths in March. The Cavaliers made two 3s in 40 minutes. Furman hit 10.
How far can Princeton and Furman go in the tournament?
Criticism: The Tigers will take their inspiration from another team in New Jersey. No one gave San Pedro a great chance as No. 15 seed last year, and the Peacocks reached the Elite Eight. Princeton will now play the 7-seed Tigers in Missouri, and Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge will be a few.
Again, Mitch Henderson’s team may have a better chance than Furman’s oddsmakers give it against 5-seed San Diego State. So far this season, the Aztecs have been better than Virginia on defense.
Borzello: Going into the NCAA tournament, I had Furman in the Sweet 16, so I was riding the Paladins again in the second round against San Diego State. Mike Bothwell should avoid getting into trouble with that one, though, because the Paladins aren’t the same team with him on the bench. San Diego State is elite defensively and really imposes its style of play on opponents, as it did against Charleston after the opening minutes.
I can beat Princeton in Missouri — but hey, the Tigers also beat Arizona. Tosan Evbuomwan vs. Kobe Brown should be an amazing match up front.
Medcalf: I think a San Diego State squad with Charleston’s hands full should be concerned. Paladins coach Bob Richey pulled off the school’s biggest NCAA tournament feat without its top scorer late in the game, and didn’t score more than 7 points until the 10-minute mark of the first half. Slawson will also be a problem for the Aztecs. He’s a fantastic matchup at that level. We may not have seen the best of Furman. And that means something.
But I’m not picking Princeton to beat Missouri. I trust Dennis Gates and Kobe Brown. Sincerely, an ESPN reporter picked Arizona to reach the Final Four.
Which team will benefit the most from two epic upsets in the South?
Borzello: This is undoubtedly Alabama. The Crimson Tide’s toughest test in the region will likely come from Arizona, one of the few teams with the offense to keep it going. While I have Virginia bounced by Furman, a potential Sweet 16 tilt against the slow-moving Cavaliers could be a huge difference in styles. The bottom half of the region is wide open now, though, which could benefit either Baylor or Creighton. The Bears have problems on defense, but they have elite guards, while Creighton is one of the best teams in the country with a healthy Ryan Kalkbrenner. One of the two could find themselves in the Elite Eight now.
Criticism: Alabama. None of that will play for the Crimson Tide until next week, of course, but the removal of No. 2 and 4 seeds from your bracket will help the team on the top line. Even when the brackets were announced, the South was considered quite welcoming to the ‘Bama. Today, the region has become more hospitable.
Medcalf: Yes, definitely Alabama. The size and speed of Arizona is considered the greatest test in the region. With Arizona out, there’s a chance Alabama puts together a pretty dominant run to the Final Four. And Tony Bennett’s defensive changes for Virginia will be problematic for most teams. The road to Alabama is now easier.
