Donald J. Trump will make his first appearance in federal criminal court on Tuesday. But the former president pleaded his case for several days in a more friendly place – the court of Republican public opinion, where he continues to dominate the field in 2024.
For Mr. Trump and his team, there is a sense of familiarity, even normalcy, in the chaos of dealing with the 37-count indictment in the case of classified documents. After two House impeachments, multiple criminal investigations, the jailing of his former business accountant, his former fixer and his former campaign manager, and now two criminal charges, Mr. Trump knows the drill, and so do his supporters.
The playbook is well-worn: Play the victim. Blame the “Deep State.” Claim of selective prosecution. Punish Republicans who stray for disloyalty. Dominating the news. Ply small donors for cash.
His allies see the accusation as an opportunity to end the primary race before it begins in the minds of Republican voters by framing 2024 as an active battle with President Biden. Until now, the main pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., has focused heavily on Mr. Trump’s Republican primary rival. Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, on his $20 million ad spend. But that message shifted after the indictment, with a new commercial being shown that directly pits Mr. Trump against Mr. Biden.
The intended effect, said a person familiar with the strategy, was to present Mr. Trump as the leader of the party and the presumptive nominee who has entered a head-to-head battle with Mr. Biden and his Justice Department, which made Mr. Trump’s Republican opponents pale in comparison.
Mr. Trump, who flew to Florida on Monday ahead of his appearance on Tuesday, is determined to serve as the narrator of his own high-stakes legal drama. He posted on Truth Social to reveal that he was indicted minutes after his lawyer called to alert him last week.
“The only good thing about this is it’s going to get my poll numbers up,” Mr. Trump told the Georgia Republican Party in a combative speech on Saturday.
Currently, the fallout of the charge appears to be moving in two parallel paths in different directions, one political, the other legal.
In politics, Mr. Trump continues to consolidate Republican support. In a CBS News poll on Sunday, only 7 percent of likely Republican primary voters first said the indictment would change their view of Mr. A full 80 percent of likely Republican voters said Mr. Trump should be able to serve even if convicted.
Legally, the specific and initial evidence presented in the charging document that was unsealed on Friday shows the gravity of the case.
That evidence included a recording of Mr. Trump claiming to have a classified document in front of him and acknowledging that he no longer had the power to declassify it, photos of the documents scattered in a storage room floor – that Mr. Trump in particular ranked – surveillance footage, reams of subpoenaed texts from his own aides and notes from his own attorney. “If even half of this is true, then he’s toast,” Bill Barr, who served as attorney general under Mr. Trump said on Fox News. “It’s very, very damaging.”
As he heads to Miami, Mr. Trump is working to reassemble a legal team rocked by two major resignations on Friday as the special counsel handling the charges, Jack Smith, says he will push for a “quick trial.”
For Mr. Trump, who has long been plagued by public relations problems and legal woes, his 2024 campaign began in part as a shield against prosecution, and a victory at the ballot box will count. in the final acquittal. However, some political strategists in either party see running while impeached as a way to appeal to independent voters who are crucial to winning the White House.
But Mr. Trump rarely turns his attention to the task immediately in front of him, and for now that’s the main thing. The CBS poll showed him dominating his closest rival, Mr. DeSantis, 61 percent to 23 percent.
Last Sunday night, the chief executive of MAGA Inc. super PAC, Taylor Budowich, sent a memo of talking points to surrogates that actually did not mention Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Just Biden.
Another person familiar with the super PAC’s strategy said the fundamentals of the political race had not changed even as the indictment brought Mr. Trump in the most serious legal threat he has ever faced. And the PAC will eventually continue to attack Mr. DeSantis, focusing directly on his record while also promoting other Republican candidates in hopes of chipping away at some of Mr. DeSantis.
The uncomfortable posture of Mr. Trump’s opponents was caught on video released by Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, attacked the “Biden DOJ” for “indicting the former president,” showing pictures of Mr. Trump. The group of Mr. Trump was happy to see it, even though the ad put Mr. DeSantis as the man to clean house within the federal government. As the Trump team sees it, forcing opponents to rally around Mr. Trump is a confirmation of the former president’s place at the head of the GOP
The arc of how Mr. Trump has bent the Republican Party and its voters to his interests is nothing new. He famously joked that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose support in his 2016 campaign.
He has survived a series of scandals as president — including a long-running investigation by a previous special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, that sent several of Trump’s advisers to prison — with few can be. One reason, his advisers and allies say, is that Republican voters are used to the various accusations he faces, leveling them all into an example of prosecutorial and Democratic overreach, regardless of the details.
“Most people on my side of the aisle believe that when it comes to Donald Trump, there are no rules,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, one of Mr. Trump, said on ABC News’ This Week on Sunday. “And you can do the exact same thing or something similar as a Democrat and nothing will happen to you.”
The New York Post picked up on the sentiment in a tabloid banner on Monday that read, “What’s Up with the Bidens?”
A Trump adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss strategy, noted that most politicians would assume a defensive posture when faced with a federal indictment. But not Mr. Trump, who delivered two speeches on Saturday, has posted several times on his social media site and is determined to use the national spotlight to deliver a proactive message of his own. “It’s Trump 24/7, wall-to-wall – why not use that to your advantage?” the adviser said, referring to the blanket media coverage Mr. Trump received after his impeachment.
The charges, however, could pose a long-term political challenge. An ABC/Ipsos poll from the weekend found that many independents think Mr. Trump should be impeached rather than thought he shouldn’t be. And 61 percent of Americans find the charges very serious or somewhat serious.
In the CBS poll, 69 percent of independent voters said they would consider Mr. Trump’s possession of documents about nuclear systems or military plans a national security risk. (46 percent of Republicans said the same, suggesting a potential party split on that point) .
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump will fly to New Jersey after his hearing, once again directing the cameras to deliver prime-time remarks that his team hopes will be televised.
Mr. Trump’s advisers noted that some cable and broadcast networks provided live coverage Monday as his motorcade left his club in Bedminster, N.J., as it headed to the airport for a trip to Miami. On Twitter, Trump adviser Jason Miller noted that even Fox News, which generally avoids much live coverage of Trump, aired footage of cars arriving at the airport. Mr. mocked. Miller on Fox News over the weekend for not carrying Mr. Trump live.
Trump’s operation said it raised $4 million in the first 24 hours after his earlier indictment by the Manhattan district attorney in March. But the campaign has not disclosed the amount at this time.
In a major fund-raiser held before the indictment, Mr. Trump gathered top donors Tuesday night in Bedminster. Those who raise at least $100,000 are invited to attend a “candlelight dinner” that will follow his speech to the media.
News of the indictment overshadowed other developments on the campaign trail. The announcement over the weekend by Mr. DeSantis in his first endorsement from fellow governor, Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma, was almost a blip. And when Mr. Trump turns himself in at a Miami courthouse on Tuesday, it will keep the attention of the former president.
About 15 different groups are trying to get Trump supporters to come to a Miami courthouse for his hearing, according to a person briefed on the plans. And a rival seeks at least a share of the spotlight. Vivek Ramaswamy, a 37-year-old businessman who has positioned himself as a pro-Trump alternative in 2024, scheduled a news conference in Miami after vowing, if elected president, to pardon Mr . Trump.
The combination of Mr.’s own language. Trump about the stakes, legal and political, can be confusing.
“This is the last war,” Mr. Trump said on Saturday.
But aware of the violence that erupted on Jan. 6, 2021, when Mr. Trump urged supporters to march on the Capitol, he was more cautious on Sunday when speaking with Roger J. Stone Jr., his longest-serving serving counsel, in an interview for the radio show of Mr. Stone.
Mr. Trump said they should join the final battle while protesting “peacefully.”