4 Weather Warning – After a soggy start to the day on Tuesday, with most places raining rain, we are looking ahead to the potential of severe thunderstorms that will move into the region for the middle of the week on Wednesday.
For the evening hours on Tuesday, we will continue with a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast tonight, most areas will remain dry during the evening and night, but as a warm front moves north into the region today evening and into the evening, we will continue to have a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Wednesday
A strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, bringing the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. With how strong this cold front is, we’re looking at the potential for severe thunderstorms for much of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center placed much of the region under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday, which is three out of five on our severe weather scale.
They also included everyone in Southeastern Michigan in a “Significant hatch” of their risk, showing that we have a higher risk of seeing severe weather than normal, which is not something we see every day in our region.
What does “Significant Hatching” mean for our area?
Important Hail Hatching: There is a 10% or greater chance of seeing two inch (2″) diameter hail within 25 miles of a point on the map. The size of the golf ball is 1.75 inches in diameter. Chicken egg-sized hail is 2.0″ in diameter, so it’s a few hailstones that can do damage if they fall.
Important Tornado Hatches: There is a 10% or greater chance of seeing EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Remember that EF-2 tornado winds are 111-135 MPH, and EF-3 tornado winds are 136-165 MPH.
As of Tuesday afternoon, all manner of severe weather is possible, including damaging winds over 60 MPH, heavy rain greater than 1″ in diameter, and tornadoes. There is a higher-than-normal threat for strong tornadoes and significant hail greater than 2″ in diameter tomorrow, as the Storm Prediction Center puts lower Michigan in a “Significant Hatched” place in their dire weather outlook for tomorrow.
Here is the current timeline of thunderstorm activity for Wednesday:
Morning Hours: Scattered thunderstorms are possible as a warm front moves north of Southern Michigan
Lunch: Short break in Thunderstorm activity
1-5 pm: First wave of thunderstorms will move in that area. These storms can be severe.
4-7 pm: A second wave of thunderstorms is moving through the region as the cold front moves through. It can also be intense.
One thing to keep in mind, however, is that there remains much uncertainty about the extent of thunderstorms as the front rolls through the region and which areas are under the greatest threat for severe weather, however everyone in Southeastern Michigan has a chance to see severe weather.
This is one of those situations where we wait and see how the atmosphere develops and what develops on Wednesday.
The best time frame for severe weather looks to be around lunchtime and work through the late afternoon and early evening hours.
The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac says the following in terms of severe weather potential for Wednesday:
“Any deep storm that forms has the potential to become a supercell and pose a threat of severe severe weather. This includes the threat of tornadoes and golf ball-sized hail or larger. Again, however, the development of thunderstorm activity may remain questionable. So the message is one that tomorrow’s environment will support severe weather.
Thursday
The cold front will stop by the time we arrive early to mid-night Wednesday, ending any kind of severe weather for Metro Detroit, and setting us up for some sunshine, dry weather, and cooler temps (but still pretty cool) for the Detroit Tigers home opener on Thursday.
Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety plans, as we will likely have severe weather watches and warnings coming into the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday.
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