New Delhi(CNN) Foreign ministers from the world’s biggest economies are gathering in New Delhi, setting the stage for a major test of India’s diplomacy as it tries to navigate tensions over brutal and unprovoked violence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the second high-level ministerial meeting under India’s Group of 20 (G20) presidency this year, the country’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, will meet his American, Chinese and Russian counterparts on Thursday, hoping to find a enough common ground to provide a joint statement at the end of the summit.
The world’s largest democracy, with a population of more than 1.3 billion, seeks to position itself as a leader among developing and developing countries – often referred to as the global South – at a time when the Rising food and energy prices as a result of the war are hammering consumers who are already struggling with rising costs and inflation.
These sentiments were front and center during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s opening statement on Thursday, when he spoke about the many crises facing the world, with less-rich countries being hit hardest.
“The experience of the last few years, the financial crisis, climate change, pandemics, terrorism and wars clearly show that global governance has failed,” Modi said.
“We must also accept that the dire consequences of this failure are faced by most of the developing countries,” which he said are most affected by global warming “caused by the richest countries”.
Avoiding the war in Ukraine, Modi acknowledged that the conflict has caused “deep division in the world.” But he encouraged foreign ministers to put aside differences at their meeting Thursday.
“We can’t let issues that we can’t solve together get in the way that we can,” he said.
The G20 flags in New Delhi on February 28, 2023.
But analysts say India’s attempt to push its agenda is complicated by lingering divisions over the war.
The differences came to a head in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru last month, when G20 finance leaders failed to agree on a statement after their meeting. Russia and China refused to sign a joint statement, condemning Moscow’s invasion. That left India to issue a “chair summary and outcome document” in which it summarized the two days of talks and acknowledged the disagreements.
Analysts say that throughout the war, New Delhi deftly balanced its relationship with Russia and the West, with Modi emerging as a leader courted by all parties.
But as the war enters its second year, and tensions continue to rise, pressure may mount on countries, including India, to take a stronger stand against Russia – testing Modi’s statecraft.
India’s balancing act
Arguably India’s most high-profile event of the year, the G20 summit has been heavily promoted domestically, with several billboards featuring Modi’s face plastered across the country. The streets were cleaned and the buildings were freshly painted before the dignitaries’ visit.
Happening in the “mother of democracies” under the leadership of Modi, his political allies want to push his international credentials, portraying him as a key player in the global order.
Last year’s G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, issued a joint declaration that echoed what Modi had told Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks earlier on the sidelines of a regional summit. in Uzbekistan.
“Now is not the time for war,” it said, prompting media and Indian officials to claim that India had an important role to play in bridging differences between an isolated Russia and United States and its allies.
A board decorated with flowers welcomes foreign ministers in New Delhi, India, on February 28, 2023.
India, say analysts, prides itself on its ability to balance relations. The country, like China, has refused to condemn Moscow’s brutal attack on Ukraine in various United Nations resolutions. Instead of cutting economic ties with the Kremlin, India undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizers.
But unlike China, India has grown closer to the West — especially the US — despite ties to Russia.
New Delhi’s relationship with Moscow dates back to the Cold War, and the country remains heavily dependent on the Kremlin for military equipment — a crucial link given India’s ongoing tensions with China over its shared Himalayan border. .
The US and India have taken steps in recent months to strengthen their defense partnership, as both sides try to counter the rise of an increasingly assertive China.
Daniel Markey, senior adviser, South Asia, for the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), said while Indian leaders “want to speed up the end of this conflict that preserves New Delhi’s relationship with Washington and Moscow and end disruption of the global economy,” India does not have “any particular leverage” over Russia or Ukraine that would make a settlement likely.
“I believe that other world leaders are equally interested in playing a diplomatic role that makes peace. So when and if Putin wants to come to the table to negotiate, he has no shortage of diplomats who hope that helps,” he said.
However, as Putin’s aggression continues to throw the global economy into turmoil, India has announced an intention to raise several concerns facing the world, including climate challenges and food and energy security, according to Modi’s opening speech.
“The world looks to the G20 to alleviate the challenges of growth, development, economic stability, disaster resilience, financial stability, transnational crime, corruption, terrorism, and food security and energy,” Modi said.
Navigating tensions
While Modi’s government seems to want to prioritize domestic challenges, experts say these issues could be sidelined by tensions between the US, Russia and China, which have recently increased concern from Washington that Beijing is considering sending lethal aid to the Kremlin’s struggling war effort.
Speaking to reporters last week, Ramin Toloui, the assistant secretary of state of the United States for economic and business affairs, said that while the Secretary of State Antony Blinken will emphasize its efforts to address the issue of food and energy security, “he will also give the damage of the war to Russia. aggression is the cause.”
Blinken “will encourage all G20 partners to redouble their calls for a just, peaceful, and lasting end to the war with the Kremlin in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter,” Toloui said.
At the same time, Russia in a statement Wednesday accused the US and the European Union of “terrorism,” saying that it is “set to clearly express Russia’s assessments” of the current crisis in food and energy.
“We will draw attention to the harmful barriers that the West has increased to prevent the export of goods that are important to the world economy, including energy sources and agricultural products,” said Russia, introducing the difficulties that New Delhi may face. during the meeting.
India “worked very hard not to be boxed in one way or the other,” Markey said. The country cannot “afford to alienate Russia or the US and Modi does not want the war talks to force any difficult decisions or distract from other issues, such as green, sustainable economic development,” he added.
But with relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorating after the US military shot down what it said was a Chinese spy balloon that flew over American territory, New Delhi will have to carefully steer the difficult negotiations between the warring parties. points.
China maintains the balloon, which was dropped by US forces in February, was a civilian research aircraft that accidentally blew up, and the explosion led Blinken to postpone a planned visit to Beijing.
As differences are likely to play out during Thursday’s ministerial meeting, analysts say India may see even limited progress as a victory.
“Any joint declaration is likely to be portrayed in the Indian media as a diplomatic achievement,” Markey said. “But its broader meaning can be limited.”
