Arizona has determined there isn’t enough groundwater for all the housing construction already approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions, a sign of looming trouble. in the West and other places where excessive use, drought. and climate change is straining water supplies.
The decision by state officials likely means the beginning of the end of the explosive development that has made the Phoenix area the nation’s fastest-growing metropolitan region.
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, gets more than half of its water supply from groundwater. Much of the rest comes from rivers and aqueducts as well as recycled wastewater. In practical terms, groundwater is a finite resource; it may take thousands of years or longer to fill.
The announcement of a groundwater shortage, which the state calls an “unmet need” for water for the next hundreds of years, means Arizona will no longer give developers in Maricopa County the bag. permits to build houses that rely on wells for water.
Phoenix and surrounding major cities, which must get separate approval from state officials for their development plans every 10 to 15 years, are also not allowed approval for any homes that rely on groundwater beyond what the state already allows.
The decision means that cities and developers will have to find alternative sources of water to support future development — for example, by trying to buy water access to the river from farmers or Native American tribes, most of whom are facing their own shortcomings. That rush to buy water is likely to shake up Arizona’s real estate market, making homes more expensive and threatening the relatively low housing costs that have made the region a magnet for people from whole country.
“Housing affordability is going to be a challenge going forward,” said Spencer Kamps, vice president of legislative affairs for the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, an industry group. He noted that even if the state limits home construction, commercial buildings, factories and other types of development can continue.
The change will act as a signal to developers, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “We see the horizon for the end of sprawl.”
The state has said it will not revoke the permits already issued and is instead counting on water conservation measures and alternative sources to produce the water needed for the approved projects.
The lack of groundwater is unlikely to disrupt planned growth in the short term in major cities such as Phoenix, Scottsdale and Mesa, Ms. Porter said.
“There is still capacity for growth within designated cities,” said Ms. Porter, referring to municipalities whose growth plans have already been approved by state water officials. Those cities cannot get permission to build anything over that amount.
The new restrictions will be felt hardest and most immediately in small towns and unincorporated swaths of desert along the edges of the Phoenix metro area — where most of the homes low cost is likely to be established. “Those are hot spots for growth,” Ms. Porter.
The announcement is the latest example of how climate change is reshaping the American Southwest. A 23-year drought and rising temperatures have lowered the level of the Colorado River, threatening 40 million Americans in Arizona and six other states that depend on it – including residents of Phoenix, who have access to water from Colorado by aqueduct.
Rising temperatures have increased the rate of evaporation from the river, even though plants need more water to survive at those higher temperatures. The water that Arizona receives from the Colorado River has been drastically cut by a voluntary agreement among seven states. Last month, Arizona agreed to conservation measures that could further reduce its supply.
The result is that Arizona’s water supply is squeezed from two directions: the disappearance of groundwater as well as the decline of the Colorado River.
And the water shortage could be worse than the state’s analysis shows because it assumes Arizona’s supply from the Colorado will remain constant for the next 100 years, something that is far from certain.
The Phoenix area occupies a valley in southern Arizona, hemmed in by mountain ridges and cut by the Salt and Gila rivers. The landscape is filled with lush golf courses, baseball diamonds, farms and swimming pools, contrasting with the rocky brown land that surrounds it.
The county uses about 2.2 billion gallons of water per day — more than double the amount of New York City, despite having half the number of people.
Arizona’s water problems are beginning to spill over into state politics. In January, the new governor, Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, promised in her first major speech to tighten controls on groundwater use around the state.
As evidence of that commitment, Governor Hobbs released a report that he said was suppressed by the previous, Republican-led administration. This shows that an area west of Phoenix, called the Hassayampa sub-basin, does not have enough water for new wells. Because of this, the Arizona Department of Water Resources said it will no longer issue new permits in that region for the construction of houses that rely on groundwater.
But the Hassayampa is just one of many sub-basins that make up the larger groundwater basin beneath metropolitan Phoenix. The state’s announcement Thursday essentially expanded the search to the entire Phoenix area.
On Thursday, Governor Hobbs tried to reassure Arizonans that the state is not drying up and said growth will continue in big cities like Phoenix.
“We will manage this situation,” he told a news conference. “We’re not going to run out of water and we’re not going to run out of water.”
One of the areas most likely to feel the impact of the new restrictions is Queen Creek.
When Arizona created its groundwater rules more than 40 years ago, Queen Creek was still mostly peach and citrus groves and vast farmland. Today, it’s one of Arizona’s fast-growing areas, where families fish in an “oasis” lake fed by recycled waste. The town’s population of 75,000 is expected to grow to 175,000 by the time it is built decades from now.
But to do any of that, the city needs to find more water.
“We’re looking at about 30,000 acre feet,” or about 9.8 billion gallons, said Paul Gardner, Queen Creek’s utility director.
With insufficient groundwater to supply its needs for future growth, Queen Creek sought water wherever it could, exploring proposals such as moving it by canal from western Arizona, expanding the Bartlett Lake reservoir by joining other cities in a project to build a higher dam.
Unlike Phoenix, Queen Creek doesn’t have a “designation” from the state — essentially, a determination that the city has enough water to support new homes. Without that designation, each proposed development must prove to the state that it has a 100-year supply. Developers without that seal of approval must now find sources other than groundwater.
Although the state is taking steps to try to slow the depletion, the Kyl Center warns that Arizona is still pumping too much groundwater. New industrial projects are absorbing groundwater without restrictions, and the demand for water is outstripping any gains from conservation efforts, the center found in a report on 2021.
Despite dire warnings from the state and water experts, some developers are confident that construction won’t stop anytime soon. Arizona’s water agency has issued construction permits for about 80,000 homes that have yet to be built, a state official said.
Cynthia Campbell, Phoenix’s water resources management consultant, said the city relies on river water, and groundwater represents only about 2 percent of its water supply. But that could change dramatically if Arizona is hit with severe cuts in parts of its Colorado River, forcing the city to pump more groundwater.
Many of the outlying developments and towns in the Maricopa County sprawl have been able to build by enrolling in a state-authorized program that allows subdivisions to absorb groundwater from an area if they pump it back into the ground in other places in the basin.
Ms. said. Campbell said the idea that you could balance water supplies like that has always been a “legal fiction,” one that now appears unsolvable as the state takes a closer look at where water supplies go. of land is lacking.
“This is the hydrologic disconnect coming home to the roost,” Ms Campbell said.
In remote areas “a lot of developers are really worried, they’re scared,” Ms. Campbell. “The truth is, it all came back to catch us.”