Among the compelling headlines, the year 2023 should be marked by three important trends in the field of global technology management that have yet to be established.
Adaptation is the key word of the era of 2022: not so much adapting technologies, but adopting them to adapt to the needs of an agile world.
The invasion of Ukraine triggered the activation of the EU’s Cyber Rapid Response Teams (CRRTs), an unused mechanism for cooperation between member states. The conflict has also transformed technology as a geopolitical vector: the Ukrainian government has decided to ‘export’ data centers to trusted third countries to protect personal, industrial and sensitive data in a ‘digital haven’. Likewise, the high expectations placed on crypto-assets partly failed in the collapse of FTX, leading to a ‘crypto winter’ in international markets. In addition, semiconductors have hit the headlines due to international rivalry between China, the US and the EU. The issue has existed for a long time and is not new, although it is now, due to its impact on export control regimes, foreign direct investment and the growing role of sanctions in more vertical technologies.
The year 2023 began, like last year, with famous headlines, although a measured and rigorous analysis of the subject suggests that there are more likely to be three major trends, as shown below. This is especially important in the year that Spain will hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU.
A greater role for industrial policy
Since the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, pointed to 2020 as the year that marks the beginning of the European Digital Decade, three major mechanisms have begun to develop: European Industrial Alliances, Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEIs) and Joint Undertakings (JUs). Industrial-technological development accounts for many of the initiatives in each of these three action areas and is expected to develop in many technological areas.
However, there will be a change in the transition from 2022 to 2023. If in 2022 each of the technologies considered strategic will cause a significant impact on their own – for example, artificial intelligence for data processing -, in 2023 it is likely that the differential value will be in how the combination of different technologies (‘combinational trends’) can create new possibilities. Such is the case with cloud and edge computing that powers the networks that connect electric cars.
Although some of these integrated technologies have not yet reached the market, 2023 is the year when public institutions will begin to consider measures regarding the use of these technologies. This is the case of the announcement by the President of the European Commission during his 2022 State of the Union Address of an initiative to explore the challenges of virtual reality: ie, the final frontier of the metaverse, which is not a technology per se but one platform for technologies that can integrate some or many applications, such as virtual, augmented and immersive realities, cloud, computing, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, etc.
Another case is the announcement in the 2023 Work Program of the European Commission of a first proposal for a regulatory framework for the hyperloop, which intends to accept this high-speed, low-carbon solution in transportation. This will be accompanied by a common European mobility data space, which is under development, to digitize the transport sector.
The year 2023 is also expected to see strong EU agreements to secure supply chains of critical materials, minerals and rare earths from third countries on which the EU is dependent.
Such is the case not only in China, but also in countries such as Brazil, Chile and Mexico, which are necessary for important raw materials used for digital technologies and green transitions. This explains why 2023 will be a year of new agreements, especially through the EU-LATAM Digital Alliance, which is expected to be the framework for channeling technological cooperation in the region and consolidating those trust relationship. An example of the latter is the December 2022 update of the trade agreement with Chile, which guarantees non-discriminatory access to the export of raw materials such as lithium.
State aid as an element of global technological rivalry
Green technologies are an additional trend for 2023. They are not new, because they have been developed for a long time, but they are very topical for many reasons in European and global management.
The US announced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on 12 August 2022, allocating nearly US$400 billion in public spending and tax credits over 10 years to reduce CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030. move accompanied by subsidies to strategic areas such as semiconductor factories in the US CHIPS+ Act, while sanctions on the export of cutting-edge technology products to China have raised disagreements.
The amount of state aid from the US does not come alone. China proposed a ‘Big Fund’ for semiconductors, while – in February 2022 – the EU announced a proposal for action on European chips to assess state aid for the creation of semiconductor manufacturing facilities in European territory, although the proposal is focused to a small extent on the stage of design, research and development –an approach that needs to be improved–.
Thus, 2023 looks set to be a year in which state aid is equally appreciated and criticized on all sides. In any case, each of these three regions will continue to implement subsidies. Indeed, the debate has already led to differences in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), where Commissioner Bréton, who did not agree with the way the IRA was addressed in the preparatory talks, did not attend the December 2022 meeting himself . State aid was not targeted at the TTC and the meeting focused only on issues on which there was agreement.
Within the EU, differences between member states on how to provide state aid are expected to deepen, with some more cautious about lending (such as the Netherlands), some demanding stricter rules on aid to state (Italy) and others intend to offer more. state aid (Germany and France).
The year of the democratization of technology
In the past few years the focus has been on the regulatory and industrial policy pillars of the EU from security, political and economic perspectives. However, the third pillar is values.
There are developments such as the Declaration of Digital Rights and Principles, the first Eurobarometer of public perception of digital rights and campaigns against Internet blocking as a form of repression. The next step is to operationalize these principles in ‘grounded’ training proposals for civil society organizations and citizens and other public levels, such as regional and local.
In 2023 Spain will hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU at a time when three major legislative dossiers must be approved, if not negotiated in their final phase: a European digital identity framework, the proposal for Cybersolidarity between the Member entity. States and the data act proposal. All have an impact on the protection of rights.
In summary, 2023 is set to be a year full of news. Beyond the plethora of media headlines, the key is to focus on these three trends as major drivers of a global technological governance that has yet to be built.
Image: Background with hexagonal pattern. Modern technology and network concept. Photo: Photocreo.
