Breaking news
By BAGEHOT
IT TELLS you a gigantic quantity about David Cameron’s dinner in London final night with Donald Tusk that the press could per chance per chance not subsequently mediate whether it became a coup or a disaster for the highest minister and his thought to renegotiate Britain’s EU membership. On the one hand the European Council president bluntly commented “no deal” as he swept out. His crew confirmed that it would not be circulating a proposal on the present time—and per chance not the next day either, if final variations can’t be ironed out. On the opposite hand Downing Boulevard became upbeat, describing as a “valuable breakthrough” the knowledge that “the Commission accumulate tabled a textual explain guaranteeing that the UK’s most recent circumstances meet the criteria for triggering the emergency brake” (a four-three hundred and sixty five days benefits freeze for incomers).
Ongoing disagreements issue Britain’s calls for for protections for non-eurozone EU participants (France is unlucky at what it sees as an try and accumulate preferential treatment for the City of London) and principles governing spousal visas for immigrants. But the principle sticking point stays the emergency brake; particularly for the reach long it ought to unexcited be aware. On Friday, after a gathering in Brussels with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, Mr Cameron dismissed a proposal for a two-three hundred and sixty five days brake with a seemingly two-three hundred and sixty five days renewal (an choice it appears to be like that too clearly designed to stifle British opposition to the EU till the referendum is safely won). Now the highest minister is reportedly pushing for a seven-three hundred and sixty five days brake, particular individual that would out dwell his premiership and dump the demand of its renewal—nearly without a doubt within the vitality of the European Council or Commission—onto his successor.
Treat out of the ordinary of this with warning. Leaks and statements from each and every London and Brussels are phase megaphone-negotiation (either aspect warning the opposite to not push too laborious) and phase shadow-boxing designed to present an exaggerated influence of the fight between the two sides—the upper for Mr Cameron to sell a final deal to his MPs and voters and for Mr Tusk to lead the EU’s other 27 governments to wave through an agreement on the summit on February 18th and nineteenth. That latter direction of could per chance per chance note trickier than the initial deal between London and Brussels. Central European governments are wary of making a precedent whereby their nationals in Western Europe are treated as 2d-class workers (situating the vitality to hit the brake in Brussels, in deserve to in nationwide capitals, could per chance per chance assist on that), while governments in Austria, Sweden, Denmark and even Germany are threatened by populist parties pushing laborious for native versions of Mr Cameron’s renegotiation.
Mr Cameron’s calls for, it ought to be conceded, will not be floor-breaking and abolish not amount to the drastic reshaping of Britain’s EU membership that he declared vital in his Bloomberg speech in 2013, all over which he first committed to an in-out referendum. Tightening migrant benefits is primarily the most contentious of his four “baskets” of calls for. The others are protections for euro-outs (which fits with the grain of existing shifts in Brussels), an anti-red tape drive (ditto) and an finish to the mantra of ever-nearer union (successfully killed off at a Council summit in 2014, which concluded that “the thought that of ever-nearer union enables for diverse paths of integration… while respecting the wishes of those that abolish not wish to deepen any additional”).
Yet none of this need be fatal for the referendum. Despite the rhetoric, the renegotiation became only ever going to be a symbolic exercise; a illustration of Britain’s ability to persuade the agenda in Brussels and an acknowledgement of swing voters’ issues, on the other hand inaccurately or impartially they replicate the reality. Mr Tusk’s readiness to disclose the abolish of migration on Britain’s public services an “emergency” (it is not, nor abolish many EU migrants cross there to articulate benefits) signifies his willingness to play alongside with this. If Mr Cameron leaves the summit on February nineteenth with an agreement that nods to Britain’s domestic EU politics—he claims he is willing to wait for a true deal, though in apply knows that his possibilities of a success the referendum give a enhance to the earlier he holds it—he stands a true probability of retaining the country within the union on the polls, in all probability as soon as June.
Why? The Out advertising campaign is divided, struggles to rally around a single vision of what Britain outside the union would and ought to unexcited peer like and, most effective of all for Europhiles, could per chance per chance yet prove truly shuffle by the chaotic and controversial UK Independence Social gathering and its allies. Mixed with Mr Cameron’s clear lead over his Labour rivals, that appears to be like to be nudging all but primarily the most die-laborious Brussels bashers into the In camp. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, each and every spoken of as prospective leaders of the Out advertising campaign, are reportedly on-board. Where anti-EU leaders as soon as boasted that 100 or extra Tory MPs would assist Brexit, that now appears to be like to be a color optimistic. Writing within the day previous to this’s Sunday Instances, Label Pritchard, a rebellious Eurosceptic relief bencher, instructed persevered membership: “In an unsafe world, Britain is safer within the EU.”
The electorate is leaning in direction of this position. too. The polls, it is real, counsel the shuffle is slim. But taking a appreciate true at cell phone vote casting (extra representative than a budget-and-straight forward on-line kind) means that In has a solid if unspectacular lead. Voters tend to err in direction of loss aversion in referendums and broadly appreciate Mr Cameron (the comparison with the leaders of each and every the Labour Social gathering and the Out advertising campaign is favourable) to the extent that, if he brandishes a “renegotiated” settlement (on the other hand superficial) and says it accentuates the pragmatic case for Britain to finish within the EU, he stands a true probability of persuading enough wavering Eurosceptics to establish their noses and vote In. Upsets are unexcited seemingly—a protracted advertising campaign could per chance per chance give the anti-EU forces the time to create momentum, a protracted summer season of refugee chaos on the continent or every other Paris-type alarm assault could per chance per chance turn the referendum into a proxy vote on immigration, an surprising domestic protection failure could per chance per chance abolish Mr Cameron’s relative popularity—but all else being equal Britain will probably vote to dwell within the EU. For how long this settles the demand, useless to articulate, is every other matter.
