- The China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement is a major diplomatic breakthrough after years of mutual hostility, suspected attacks and espionage between the two countries.
- It represents Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades has been largely occupied by Washington.
- The deal is “a much-needed pressure valve amid rising tensions in the region” — but significant changes are far from guaranteed, CNBC analysts said.
A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper that reports on its front page the agreement brokered by China between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore relations, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – When arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were restoring diplomatic ties, much of the world was stunned – not just because of the collapse after years of fighting each other, it was suspected attacks and espionage between the two countries, but because of the broker of the deal: China.
Taking on a specific role that the US cannot fulfill, this is Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades has been largely occupied by Washington.
As tensions rise between the world’s two largest economies and US lawmakers sound the alarm over China’s competition and security concerns, what does Beijing’s rise in the region mean for the Middle East — and for US interests?
“Many are heaving a sigh of relief [with] official Iran-Saudi deal today,” Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, wrote on Twitter after the news was announced. “All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory , but the Saudis are arguably the biggest winners,” he argued.
From the Saudi perspective, the normalization of Iran – a country that the Saudi monarchy has long seen as one of the biggest security threats – removes obstacles to the path of economic reform and renewal, according to by Joseph Westphal, a former US ambassador to the kingdom.
“I think the leadership there believes that this is a very important moment for Saudi Arabia as it emerges … as a real world leader on many issues,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday. . “A constant struggle with Iran has delayed that and hindered the progress they have made.”
“Obviously, the United States cannot make this deal possible because we have no relationship with Iran,” the ambassador added. “I think China is a good partner to do this. I think they are the right people,” he said, noting that China has invested heavily in Saudi Arabia and is the main trading partner. .
“So I think it’s a very good thing all the way around.”
Hopes for de-escalation in places like Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has waged a brutal war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015, are now more realistic than ever, analysts say. The risks of sending oil supplies to the region can be reduced, and trade and investment between countries can increase growth.
At the very least, improved communication will reduce the risks of confrontation, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Verisk Maplecroft, who called the deal “a necessary pressure valve amid rising regional tensions.”
Still, it’s a mistake to think that everything is solved.
“Given the ongoing shadow war between Iran and Israel – and occasional Iranian-backed attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure across the region – the risk of escalation due to miscalculation is uncomfortably high.” long,” he said.
In the past few years, the region has seen a number of attacks, particularly on Saudi and Emirati ships and energy infrastructure, which Riyadh and Washington have blamed on Iran. Tehran has rejected the accusations.
“Riyadh and Tehran will remain adversaries with competing visions for the region,” Soltvedt emphasized. “But improved channels for communication have the potential to reduce the risk of a direct military confrontation between the two states.”
Iran is also currently enriching uranium to its highest level ever, and is believed to be months away from the capability to build a nuclear bomb. Rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran will be little if the latter’s nuclear program is not addressed.
Such reluctance in the White House to praise China is hard not to notice.
“We support any effort to reduce tensions in the region. We think it’s in our interest,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said of the news on Friday, adding that the Biden administration made similar efforts in that direction.
But when asked about Beijing’s role, Kirby replied: “It’s not about China and I’m not going to describe here what China’s role is.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (R) at the Yamamah Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The news marks China’s growing influence in the Arab region. And not just economically, because it already exports a lot of goods to the Middle East and is the largest importer of Saudi oil – but politically. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making a concerted effort to diversify their foreign relations and move away from over-reliance on the US, as successive American administrations have treated the Middle East less priority.
“I think it shows that the influence and credibility of the US in that region has decreased and that there is a new kind of international alignment in the region that is happening, which is empowering and giving Russia and China new- influence and status,” Aaron David Miller, a senior. fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former adviser on Middle East policy for the State Department, told NBC News.
He called the fact that China is taking part in the deal “terrible.”
US Marine Corps General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. (C, rear), commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Lieutenant General Fahd bin Turki bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (front), commander of the Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen, are shown reportedly Iranian weapons seized in Saudi forces from Yemen’s Huthi rebels, during his visit to al-Kharj military base in central Saudi Arabia on July 18, 2019.
Fayez Nureldine | AFP | Getty Images
However, there seems to be a consensus that in terms of military power and security alliances in the region, US influence is not at risk.
“There is no intervention by China – or any diplomatic involvement – that will threaten US primacy in the region. All states, including Iran, know that,” said Al-Saif of Khalifa University. The US-Saudi Arabia security partnership spans nearly three-quarters of a century, and Saudi Arabia’s military arsenal is heavily supplied and maintained by US and American military personnel.
Neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.
Bader Al-Saif
Assistant professor of history, Khalifa University
In any case, China’s gain does not necessarily mean a loss for the US, many believe.
“It should not be a zero sum game for the US. It can serve US interests: Iran nuclear deal, Yemen, Lebanon for starters will benefit from the agreement,” Al-Saif said.
“A swift action must be followed in these files [because] the agreement may not last long,” he added. “It may also reap benefits while it lasts.”
It remains to be seen whether the agreement between the two Middle Eastern powers – and the mutual goodwill expressed in its aftermath – will last.
Many regional observers are skeptical.
“Iran’s choice for participation here should not be misinterpreted as a de-escalation,” Behnam ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC. “Tehran is taking advantage of deeper Chinese penetration in Persian Gulf trade as well as increased Saudi hedging of the pro-American order in the region.”
“There is no political cost to the Islamic Republic in this agreement, while its optics and politics, especially the substance, are in favor of Iran,” he said, stressing his doubt that Iran will stop interfering in conflicts in the region and so on. countries through proxies and militant activities.
Ben Taleblu also argues that Iran’s hatred of Israel plays a role in its calculations as “Tehran is trying to show that it has defeated Jerusalem to Riyadh, and is trying to push and get out of the diplomatic isolation felt because of Abraham Accords” when the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel.
For al-Saif, there is “certain hope for the agreement to live on” and lead to the prosperity that the people of both countries deserve. “But,” he said, “neither KSA nor Iran will change overnight.”